It's about that time, folks...

That's right, say it with me: Oscar season. As meaningless and silly (in terms of films' worth, that is) as we've come to know them to be, the Oscars are nevertheless fun, important and worth getting excited over, even if it's rare we agree with them. While neither of the best films of last year ("Pan's Labyrinth" and "Children of Men") may have won Oscar's top prize, at least the winner was ONE of the best movies of the year (it was my #5 of 2006), and it was the increasingly rare situation where the best of the five nominees actually won.



Even in the years when they are so so so so so so so off-the-mark that it's infuriating (*cough* "Crash" *cough*), the hustle and bustle of the season and the celebration of film-- even if it's all self-congratulatory-- that goes on for months on end is always the most exciting and joyous part of the year for me. While I think we may have already seen a few potential nominees in a handful of categories, for the most part, the major onslaught of "Oscar contenders" is about to commence. It seems to happen earlier and earlier each year, and this year, it starts officially next week on September 14th, with the releases of David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises," Julie Taymor's "Across the Universe," Neil Jordan's "The Brave One," and Paul Haggis's "In the Valley of Elah" (though all except "The Brave One" are only opening in limited markets before opening wide on the 21st). I've already seen "Eastern Promises," see "Elah" this Friday, "Brave One" next Monday, and "Across" next Friday, so who knows, seeing them alone may change my predictions.

So starting next week, on the 14th, as I'm wont to do each season, I'm going to be having a little footer at the bottom of each review with the phrase "Oscar Potential" and listing the categories in which I think said film has a genuine shot at being nominated for. Last year I did pretty good (check the archives to prove it) on my predictions; most notably, terms of "Babel" and "Little Children"--- "Babel" received 5 of the 6 nominations I predicted for it, and "Children" 3 of the 4, not bad for first week of October. Not to brag or anything, but...



Anyway, in addition to announcing said tag, I am also now making my 'Five Months Out' predictions. I doubt many, if any, of these will prove to be true-- we're far as hell away, and so many of these movies haven't even been seen yet, let alone their awards worth ascertained-- but it's just fun to predict. I'm sure my thoughts will change as soon as next week, but for right now, the mindframe I'm in at the moment is sending me the following signals. At the moment, I think there appears to be 12 films with legitimate chances for the 5 slots for best picture, and my gut is telling me those films are "American Gangster," "Atonement," "Charlie Wilson's War" [which I've read the script for], "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," "Gone Baby Gone," "In the Valley of Elah," "The Kite Runner," "No Country for Old Men," "Reservation Road" [which I've seen], "The Savages," "Sweeney Todd," and "There Will Be Blood."

I'll try to give my updated/changed predictions regularly throughout the season-- let's say the first week of every month, maybe more often if I grow antsy. Again, these are who, right now, I'm predicting will be nominated, NOT who I think should be, for the major categories. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE

"Atonement," Focus Features
"Charlie Wilson's War," Universal Pictures
"In the Valley of Elah," Warner Independent Pictures
"No Country for Old Men," Miramax Films
"There Will Be Blood," Paramount Vantage

BEST DIRECTOR

--Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
--Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
--Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
--Mike Nichols, "Charlie Wilson's War"
--Joe Wright, "Atonement"

BEST ACTOR

--Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
--Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
--Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
--James McAvoy, "Atonement"
--Joaquin Phoenix, "Reservation Road"

BEST ACTRESS

--Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
--Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
--Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose"
--Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding"
--Laura Linney, "The Savages"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

--Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
--Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
--Paul Dano, "There Will Be Blood"
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
--Mark Ruffalo, "Reservation Road"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

--Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
--Helena Bonham Carter, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
--Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
--Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
--Susan Sarandon, "In the Valley of Elah"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

--"I'm Not There"
--"Juno"
--"Lions for Lambs"
--"Ratatouille"
--"The Savages"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

--"Atonement"
--"Charlie Wilson's War"
--"In the Valley of Elah"
--"No Country for Old Men"
--"There Will Be Blood"